* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992021 07/30/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 30 33 36 40 42 46 50 53 56 56 55 56 54 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 30 33 36 40 42 46 50 53 56 56 55 56 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 27 27 28 30 33 38 42 46 50 53 56 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 15 12 12 10 13 14 20 21 21 17 17 13 10 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 319 328 351 19 83 116 111 79 55 60 54 58 65 77 41 50 69 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 132 135 137 139 139 141 143 144 142 141 141 140 139 140 137 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 62 65 69 68 65 60 59 57 60 61 59 59 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 14 15 17 18 17 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -9 -11 -4 7 20 25 39 41 41 37 40 41 51 64 61 49 200 MB DIV 14 -8 -13 -3 24 0 -18 -13 37 81 90 86 79 75 77 24 18 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1802 1878 1948 2003 2058 2192 2351 2526 2589 2486 2402 2353 2314 2290 2245 2192 2149 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.2 11.6 10.9 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.4 126.2 126.7 127.2 128.3 129.7 131.2 132.5 133.6 134.4 134.8 135.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 5 5 7 7 8 6 5 2 2 2 3 4 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 4 6 8 7 6 8 11 13 14 14 12 9 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. 10. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 26. 25. 26. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 124.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/30/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.26 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.83 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 6.4% 6.3% 4.6% 0.0% 6.5% 6.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.6% 0.0% 2.2% 2.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/30/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##