* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992021 07/29/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 29 33 37 41 46 48 51 55 59 60 62 62 59 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 29 33 37 41 46 48 51 55 59 60 62 62 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 27 26 27 28 31 34 38 44 51 57 64 69 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 17 17 9 6 7 13 11 16 14 13 12 12 10 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 -5 -6 -5 -4 -3 -6 -5 -3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 295 295 305 322 343 99 108 110 89 67 45 59 43 57 57 36 26 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.7 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 136 134 133 135 140 138 140 142 142 142 143 142 142 140 137 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 60 63 66 66 69 70 69 67 61 59 55 59 60 59 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 10 12 13 14 16 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -22 -17 -9 -6 11 23 27 39 35 35 35 35 36 36 39 31 200 MB DIV 4 23 29 41 32 38 11 -18 -12 32 76 74 44 40 36 53 30 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -3 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1619 1690 1756 1817 1878 1987 2128 2288 2451 2538 2383 2235 2122 2029 1966 1892 1824 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.4 12.0 11.6 11.5 11.6 11.8 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.3 123.2 124.0 124.7 125.3 126.4 127.7 129.3 130.9 132.6 134.1 135.5 136.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 4 3 5 8 6 8 11 10 10 13 16 17 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 3. 7. 11. 16. 18. 21. 25. 29. 30. 32. 32. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 122.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/29/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.24 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.0% 6.0% 3.7% 0.0% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 3.8% 2.1% 1.2% 0.0% 3.1% 3.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/29/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##