* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992021 07/29/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 30 33 38 43 49 51 56 60 63 65 63 62 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 30 33 38 43 49 51 56 60 63 65 63 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 30 28 27 27 28 31 35 41 47 52 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 11 13 11 8 2 5 10 6 13 14 16 16 22 17 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 2 -1 0 -1 -4 -7 -4 -2 -1 0 -3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 317 296 285 277 259 262 170 147 114 56 64 64 75 40 43 35 38 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 141 141 139 137 142 142 140 141 141 140 138 141 142 140 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 58 61 62 65 66 70 71 71 70 65 63 58 62 63 64 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 11 13 14 17 19 16 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -21 -22 -19 -15 -2 8 14 27 24 30 50 70 81 65 39 32 200 MB DIV -7 -9 29 26 27 47 30 -13 -4 17 18 40 63 68 43 9 -1 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -4 -2 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -2 -3 -7 -9 LAND (KM) 1477 1513 1557 1604 1669 1788 1909 2057 2226 2380 2506 2459 2359 2348 2393 2449 2405 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.6 13.3 13.1 12.7 12.4 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.1 120.8 121.5 122.2 122.9 124.2 125.6 127.1 128.9 130.5 132.0 133.3 134.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 8 8 7 6 3 1 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 9 8 6 5 8 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 12 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -7. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 3. 8. 13. 19. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 33. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 120.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/29/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.49 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.10 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 14.0% 9.4% 7.5% 0.0% 11.3% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.4% 2.5% 1.2% 0.3% 1.7% 1.4% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 6.5% 4.0% 2.9% 0.1% 4.3% 4.1% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/29/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##