* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992021 07/28/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 23 24 30 38 43 47 51 55 55 60 60 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 23 24 30 38 43 47 51 55 55 60 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 18 18 18 20 22 25 27 30 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 12 12 9 5 3 5 12 12 13 16 16 14 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -9 -4 -2 -3 -2 -4 -8 -8 SHEAR DIR 320 306 294 280 271 268 241 156 121 96 77 76 57 64 53 88 77 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 139 141 141 139 139 142 141 139 139 140 140 140 139 135 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 62 62 68 68 71 72 72 69 68 67 65 67 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 15 14 17 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -35 -25 -27 -22 -4 3 14 23 29 31 37 32 42 49 45 38 200 MB DIV 12 7 11 38 34 28 9 16 12 4 25 40 32 84 39 28 -13 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1441 1477 1507 1560 1614 1738 1856 1979 2105 2235 2348 2420 2464 2470 2397 2262 2053 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.4 120.1 120.7 121.4 122.1 123.4 124.8 126.1 127.6 129.1 130.4 131.4 132.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 4 3 3 5 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 5 6 8 7 6 6 9 8 8 11 15 19 14 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 8. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 18. 22. 26. 30. 30. 35. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 119.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/28/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.44 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.2% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.6% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 3.4% 3.6% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/28/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##