* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992021 07/28/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 33 33 34 37 45 47 50 54 60 62 66 66 66 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 33 33 34 37 45 47 50 54 60 62 66 66 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 31 28 26 25 24 24 26 28 32 34 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 9 11 9 7 3 6 11 4 7 4 6 6 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 1 0 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 -4 -1 -2 -1 -3 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 331 325 309 290 283 253 283 166 155 142 105 90 54 33 48 97 149 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 138 139 139 139 141 140 139 140 141 139 139 139 136 130 119 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 58 59 62 62 64 70 72 73 75 74 72 68 66 64 65 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 13 14 16 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -47 -36 -30 -31 -11 2 19 27 27 35 30 24 18 24 27 30 200 MB DIV 20 24 16 17 33 32 43 35 28 27 25 44 59 28 35 7 9 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 1431 1448 1481 1525 1578 1673 1769 1853 1941 2043 2160 2248 2330 2394 2231 2026 1804 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.6 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.4 118.9 119.5 120.1 120.7 121.9 123.1 124.3 125.6 127.2 128.8 130.3 131.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 6 7 7 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 6 6 6 8 7 6 8 9 10 20 16 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 6. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 7. 15. 17. 20. 24. 30. 32. 36. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 118.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/28/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.48 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 14.9% 13.4% 12.1% 0.0% 13.0% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 27.2% 11.7% 7.8% 2.4% 10.1% 10.2% 15.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 14.3% 8.4% 6.6% 0.8% 7.7% 7.5% 5.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/28/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##