* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992021 07/28/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 27 27 27 27 29 35 43 50 54 57 59 62 62 64 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 27 27 27 27 29 35 43 50 54 57 59 62 62 64 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 27 28 27 26 24 22 22 23 24 26 29 32 34 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 8 10 9 9 5 8 7 8 7 9 6 8 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 0 -2 0 -2 -3 -7 -7 -3 -1 -1 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 326 329 307 296 292 286 295 359 111 84 106 90 77 67 113 90 102 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 142 143 142 142 140 139 143 144 144 143 139 138 134 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 60 62 65 74 74 75 73 73 70 69 67 65 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -40 -39 -27 -22 -22 4 6 27 37 44 43 61 58 61 71 73 200 MB DIV 51 36 38 37 54 23 36 38 24 21 30 33 46 48 45 6 -8 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1418 1441 1474 1517 1578 1679 1785 1883 1972 2081 2189 2296 2385 2344 2196 2063 1970 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.2 118.8 119.4 120.0 120.7 122.0 123.2 124.6 125.8 127.3 128.8 130.5 132.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 7 8 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 9 10 12 22 8 5 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 10. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 37. 38. 39. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 118.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/28/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.53 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.0% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 11.5% 5.8% 3.0% 0.8% 4.6% 8.4% 15.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 9.3% 6.7% 1.0% 0.3% 5.9% 6.9% 5.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/28/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##