* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992021 07/28/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 29 30 30 31 32 37 43 50 56 60 62 65 65 63 62 V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 30 30 31 32 37 43 50 56 60 62 65 65 63 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 28 26 24 22 22 23 25 27 29 28 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 10 7 7 10 7 5 4 5 7 8 5 3 8 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 1 3 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 -7 -3 1 -1 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 329 338 331 331 308 286 281 301 136 114 73 28 38 72 105 118 130 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.6 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 143 142 142 140 142 141 139 141 143 139 136 133 128 117 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 60 63 66 71 75 75 75 73 71 69 69 68 65 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 14 13 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -31 -40 -37 -29 -29 -11 8 28 39 42 34 21 5 0 -8 3 200 MB DIV 46 39 29 30 67 34 16 53 77 56 34 42 44 27 24 10 -22 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 0 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1394 1423 1445 1469 1501 1595 1688 1773 1854 1949 2034 2127 2172 2198 2224 2274 2147 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.2 117.7 118.2 118.7 119.3 120.5 121.7 122.9 124.2 125.6 127.0 128.4 129.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 8 11 11 10 7 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 33. 33. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 12. 18. 25. 31. 35. 38. 40. 40. 38. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 117.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/28/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 10.7% 47.5% 28.5% 19.9% 7.3% 25.6% 22.6% 34.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 23.9% 15.6% 6.7% 2.4% 14.0% 12.4% 11.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/28/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##