* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992021 07/27/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 18 18 19 22 26 30 32 35 39 41 43 46 48 46 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 18 18 19 22 26 30 32 35 39 41 43 46 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 19 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 7 9 10 7 8 7 7 5 6 7 1 2 5 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 2 1 0 -5 -3 -1 -6 -1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 305 295 346 335 333 337 292 277 278 227 136 126 105 205 224 205 238 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.7 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.1 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 143 141 143 142 143 142 138 140 144 142 140 137 124 112 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 56 54 56 56 58 60 64 67 71 73 72 71 68 65 62 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -26 -28 -25 -33 -29 -24 -12 -3 13 11 14 12 0 -4 -15 -20 200 MB DIV 25 24 35 40 22 15 -7 -12 12 62 51 16 25 -8 -2 -8 -16 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 4 1 LAND (KM) 1322 1356 1393 1414 1453 1531 1617 1712 1812 1917 2035 2153 2263 2355 2232 2008 1803 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.2 117.8 118.4 119.1 120.4 121.6 122.9 124.2 125.6 127.2 128.8 130.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 10 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 12 9 8 7 8 8 9 7 5 8 11 13 17 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. 38. 39. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 10. 12. 15. 19. 21. 23. 26. 28. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.8 116.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/27/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 13.6% 8.0% 3.4% 1.1% 4.0% 0.4% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 4.5% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/27/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##