* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992021 07/27/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 19 19 20 23 27 32 35 38 42 44 45 47 48 48 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 19 19 20 23 27 32 35 38 42 44 45 47 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 19 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 3 3 4 7 8 7 11 8 4 7 9 10 6 8 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -2 -2 0 0 3 0 -4 -6 -4 -6 -3 0 3 3 3 SHEAR DIR 8 313 288 316 318 315 297 286 281 218 155 108 126 114 127 157 205 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 146 144 142 142 142 143 141 141 145 146 146 144 140 138 134 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 56 54 56 56 58 60 62 68 69 72 70 68 65 64 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -27 -31 -31 -31 -38 -28 -23 -3 10 9 14 19 7 0 -15 -9 200 MB DIV -4 22 33 36 30 0 0 -23 5 67 71 23 16 -23 -25 -9 -15 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 3 5 LAND (KM) 1281 1320 1356 1394 1425 1509 1605 1714 1829 1933 2034 2138 2241 2310 2369 2333 2156 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.7 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.9 117.5 118.1 118.7 120.1 121.4 122.8 124.2 125.5 126.7 128.1 129.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 14 10 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 10 13 12 15 18 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. 39. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 22. 24. 25. 27. 28. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 116.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/27/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 18.1% 12.9% 5.3% 1.2% 4.1% 0.3% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 6.0% 4.3% 1.8% 0.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/27/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##