* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992020 08/26/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 27 30 31 27 24 22 21 19 18 19 21 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 27 30 31 27 24 22 21 19 18 19 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 22 21 21 23 24 27 22 24 20 22 19 26 25 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 3 6 5 3 6 0 0 2 2 0 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 81 84 82 84 71 79 72 89 83 100 96 115 132 116 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.3 27.3 26.8 26.7 27.0 26.9 26.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 151 154 155 152 151 151 146 136 131 129 131 129 127 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 -50.6 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 61 63 64 68 73 77 77 69 66 61 62 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 13 13 14 13 11 9 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 52 45 56 70 87 82 67 67 52 48 59 49 37 31 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 55 59 59 77 53 85 63 69 53 57 20 -7 -3 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 3 7 6 1 -6 -4 -7 1 -3 -5 -5 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1164 1126 1089 1032 976 868 719 586 459 430 433 502 618 672 671 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.5 18.5 19.7 20.8 21.8 22.3 22.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.4 117.1 116.8 116.4 115.9 114.9 113.8 113.1 112.8 113.5 115.0 116.4 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 6 4 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 16 18 21 24 19 14 13 9 3 1 1 2 2 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 32. 33. 34. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -6. -12. -15. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 5. 6. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.1 117.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 08/26/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 08/26/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##