* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992020 08/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 29 30 27 23 23 25 25 23 21 21 22 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 29 30 27 23 23 25 25 23 21 21 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 20 22 23 30 31 32 39 28 20 18 29 35 34 29 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 3 0 3 3 10 3 4 5 10 4 0 -3 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 77 85 86 82 74 62 58 66 68 72 66 94 87 90 92 92 92 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.1 26.7 27.0 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 150 150 151 150 151 152 149 142 140 140 132 128 132 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 5 7 6 7 4 700-500 MB RH 64 62 65 65 66 68 66 67 73 73 71 70 74 77 79 75 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 11 14 13 14 12 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 53 63 61 48 46 69 59 55 42 49 56 66 42 43 37 39 43 200 MB DIV 50 39 48 62 68 70 39 57 30 69 100 87 73 53 39 40 30 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 3 3 -1 -10 -5 -5 2 2 2 4 4 3 7 5 LAND (KM) 1152 1134 1119 1100 1087 1030 953 852 757 610 524 462 394 351 279 233 271 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.6 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.7 116.7 116.6 116.3 116.1 115.3 114.2 112.8 111.3 109.9 109.2 109.0 109.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 5 6 8 7 5 3 5 6 4 3 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 16 19 21 28 23 15 15 16 11 8 8 4 4 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 36. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -16. -21. -23. -23. -24. -25. -27. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 4. 1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 5. 2. -2. -2. -0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 116.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 08/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 08/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##