* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992020 07/20/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 29 26 23 23 21 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 29 26 23 23 21 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 29 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 8 7 6 8 12 16 15 18 20 24 25 31 32 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 -1 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 78 65 94 100 134 169 196 210 241 242 246 238 243 244 250 257 256 SST (C) 25.8 25.1 24.5 24.2 23.7 23.2 23.1 23.4 23.2 23.4 23.3 23.1 23.3 23.7 24.1 24.6 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 114 108 105 99 94 93 96 94 95 94 90 92 97 102 109 112 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 60 56 52 43 38 32 29 28 27 27 28 26 23 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -32 -44 -57 -46 -46 -50 -41 -48 -40 -45 -71 -84 -87 -64 -57 -44 200 MB DIV 44 22 9 9 2 -3 -19 -3 -7 -20 -8 0 -9 -3 -16 -1 -7 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 4 9 8 16 15 18 14 10 2 -16 -29 -37 -41 -38 LAND (KM) 1837 1855 1878 1913 1962 2042 1930 1745 1594 1472 1384 1342 1299 1228 1118 954 755 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.3 21.1 22.0 22.7 23.6 24.4 25.2 25.8 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.1 130.0 130.8 131.6 132.5 134.4 136.4 138.3 140.0 141.5 142.8 143.6 144.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 6 4 3 4 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -18. -22. -28. -35. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 129.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 07/20/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 07/20/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##