* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992020 07/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 27 27 25 26 26 25 23 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 27 27 25 26 26 25 23 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 4 5 6 5 6 11 13 18 19 25 31 35 34 32 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 2 2 0 -1 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 9 7 8 SHEAR DIR 356 23 41 47 86 133 161 197 214 226 229 226 229 235 234 243 243 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.1 23.3 23.2 23.6 23.2 23.5 22.9 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 117 111 104 96 95 98 94 97 89 87 85 85 88 95 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 64 62 59 53 45 36 31 28 26 25 25 23 20 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -17 -16 -23 -36 -46 -38 -44 -43 -53 -45 -76 -93 -87 -74 -53 -47 200 MB DIV 74 73 65 39 24 6 7 -21 -6 -7 -1 -14 -11 -11 1 -8 -4 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 2 7 9 10 18 18 20 15 10 -5 -21 -35 -29 -20 LAND (KM) 1834 1842 1843 1859 1872 1969 2066 1908 1703 1544 1436 1395 1413 1437 1437 1383 1274 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.8 20.0 20.9 21.8 22.6 23.6 24.7 25.8 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.2 128.1 128.9 129.8 130.5 132.4 134.5 136.6 138.7 140.5 142.0 143.0 143.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 3 0 1 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 18. 17. 14. 10. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -7. -12. -19. -26. -35. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 127.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##