* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992020 07/19/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 31 34 36 37 37 37 38 38 38 37 37 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 31 34 36 37 37 37 38 38 38 37 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 19 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 1 4 8 6 7 6 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 0 -2 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 307 266 290 75 97 84 70 56 27 349 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.3 25.2 24.5 24.3 24.7 25.3 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 127 122 116 115 107 106 111 117 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 64 65 61 60 55 51 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 8 9 7 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -23 -18 -17 -20 -40 -36 -23 -15 0 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 91 89 80 58 19 13 1 -5 -14 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 6 3 6 10 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1850 1865 1880 1895 1916 2026 2170 1986 1710 1422 1154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 9 9 9 11 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.1 126.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 4.5% 3.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 10.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##