* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992019 07/26/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 24 30 41 52 64 73 76 76 73 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 24 30 41 52 64 73 76 76 73 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 26 30 37 45 50 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 10 9 3 3 4 6 3 2 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 5 4 2 0 0 -3 -7 -5 -5 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 331 22 21 34 23 22 336 54 51 108 247 230 248 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.0 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 154 158 160 159 156 156 159 155 146 143 139 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 70 67 66 61 58 55 55 54 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 7 7 7 8 10 11 12 15 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -9 1 -4 -3 -2 6 27 33 24 31 38 36 200 MB DIV 47 76 68 39 16 18 42 76 67 50 48 45 14 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -4 -4 -6 -3 -4 -4 -2 -4 -4 0 5 LAND (KM) 1678 1745 1835 1927 2008 2192 2379 2547 2341 2076 1823 1582 1352 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.8 11.0 11.4 12.1 12.9 13.9 14.9 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 119.0 120.2 121.5 122.9 124.3 126.9 129.5 132.0 134.3 136.6 138.7 140.7 142.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 14 13 13 13 12 11 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 37 44 55 49 34 19 27 27 17 14 24 15 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 10. 21. 32. 44. 53. 56. 56. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 119.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992019 INVEST 07/26/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 43.6% 21.8% 12.7% 1.1% 11.8% 2.7% 17.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 15.5% 7.5% 4.3% 0.4% 4.1% 1.0% 5.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992019 INVEST 07/26/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##