* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982021 07/25/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 32 34 35 34 32 30 31 33 35 38 40 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 29 32 34 35 34 32 30 31 33 35 38 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 27 24 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 5 6 1 11 13 14 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -7 -6 -6 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 27 36 5 4 358 268 256 247 212 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.4 26.8 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.8 27.0 26.6 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 139 133 130 132 134 133 135 131 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 65 65 66 63 59 59 61 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -8 -12 -22 -27 -27 -24 -14 -4 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 41 52 39 20 -4 2 14 35 22 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 -1 0 1 3 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2246 2104 1962 1836 1712 1466 1229 1008 814 656 591 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.9 136.3 137.7 139.0 140.2 142.6 145.1 147.6 150.1 152.8 155.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 9 6 2 1 3 12 5 8 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 29. 30. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 134.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982021 INVEST 07/25/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.23 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 1.2% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.1% 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 4.3% 4.1% 1.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982021 INVEST 07/25/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##