* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982021 07/24/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 34 35 31 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 34 35 31 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 7 3 3 2 5 9 17 23 30 32 34 36 38 39 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -3 -3 -5 -1 0 1 0 3 2 4 -3 0 6 1 SHEAR DIR 101 111 92 66 48 212 236 214 241 248 254 241 241 240 261 292 300 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.5 26.5 25.2 24.4 24.3 24.5 24.6 25.2 25.8 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 146 145 141 130 116 107 106 108 109 115 121 117 117 118 119 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.9 -55.1 -55.4 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 66 65 62 60 56 52 51 53 53 53 48 45 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 11 11 12 11 9 8 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 5 -1 -10 -21 -29 -28 -22 -19 -8 -13 -23 -29 -48 -61 -70 -67 200 MB DIV 2 13 24 36 32 42 37 18 -11 26 -1 -6 -54 28 -33 -55 -62 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 2 0 2 3 3 3 2 7 9 11 11 7 2 LAND (KM) 2148 2223 2293 2377 2306 1991 1705 1457 1227 1007 796 580 386 224 145 94 54 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.3 15.1 15.7 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.9 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.4 129.6 131.0 132.4 133.8 136.6 139.2 141.4 143.5 145.5 147.4 149.3 151.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 19 24 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 6. -1. -9. -16. -21. -27. -30. -32. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 128.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982021 INVEST 07/24/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.0% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.1% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0% 5.4% 4.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982021 INVEST 07/24/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##