* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982021 07/23/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 35 40 42 41 37 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 35 40 42 41 37 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 29 30 31 32 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 17 13 8 7 1 6 10 16 24 30 31 34 32 42 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -5 -3 -2 0 0 -1 1 5 9 8 3 5 SHEAR DIR 87 70 75 80 83 67 224 219 241 228 246 238 246 255 247 248 244 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 27.8 27.0 25.5 24.6 24.2 24.5 24.4 24.6 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 145 148 143 135 119 109 105 108 107 109 113 110 109 108 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -55.3 -55.6 -56.1 -55.9 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 71 70 65 62 60 55 52 47 51 50 53 49 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 9 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 7 2 -3 -3 -19 -31 -31 -29 -20 -17 -15 -28 -32 -50 -41 -38 200 MB DIV 32 18 29 32 34 36 38 16 3 -10 -9 6 -8 -23 -32 1 17 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 3 1 2 6 11 9 1 9 LAND (KM) 1961 2018 2089 2148 2222 2338 2177 1918 1663 1433 1192 959 746 587 499 422 363 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.9 13.3 14.2 15.1 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.1 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.1 126.2 127.3 128.4 129.7 132.2 134.8 137.1 139.4 141.5 143.7 145.8 147.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 11 11 10 11 10 10 7 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 9 12 15 24 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. 24. 22. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 17. 16. 12. 7. 0. -6. -13. -16. -20. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 125.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982021 INVEST 07/23/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.31 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.4% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 4.3% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982021 INVEST 07/23/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##