* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982021 07/23/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 37 38 36 31 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 37 38 36 31 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 30 29 28 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 13 12 2 3 8 13 18 22 29 32 35 39 43 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -2 -5 -6 -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 2 2 1 1 3 SHEAR DIR 102 101 87 83 83 147 275 252 256 241 246 239 249 249 251 243 251 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.8 26.9 25.4 24.6 24.2 24.5 24.5 24.6 25.2 25.2 24.9 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 141 144 146 144 134 118 109 105 108 108 109 115 114 111 116 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -55.1 -55.7 -56.3 -56.3 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 70 69 66 62 61 58 53 50 47 51 51 53 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 11 11 5 0 -8 -23 -28 -29 -26 -23 -23 -19 -37 -49 -50 -47 200 MB DIV 56 41 11 13 18 11 27 22 17 -1 -5 20 3 -6 -13 5 22 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 12 17 8 8 LAND (KM) 1849 1895 1956 2039 2123 2268 2212 1933 1674 1443 1218 978 747 534 384 317 308 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.1 126.3 127.6 128.9 131.7 134.4 136.9 139.3 141.4 143.5 145.7 147.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 11 10 11 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 15 16 19 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. 22. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -17. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 12. 13. 11. 6. 1. -4. -9. -15. -17. -21. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 124.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982021 INVEST 07/23/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.41 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 1.1% 2.8% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.0% 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 4.7% 5.2% 1.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982021 INVEST 07/23/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##