* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982021 07/23/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 26 31 35 38 38 34 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 26 31 35 38 38 34 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 7 0 5 9 14 18 26 31 33 36 38 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -7 -4 -5 -4 -1 1 0 0 3 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 108 99 100 88 83 99 126 279 232 247 244 244 244 250 251 246 247 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.6 27.0 26.0 25.0 24.5 24.2 24.5 24.6 24.7 25.4 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 141 142 144 141 135 124 114 108 105 108 109 110 117 114 114 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -55.3 -55.8 -56.4 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 74 71 68 65 62 60 55 52 47 50 50 53 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 11 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 9 10 11 6 0 -12 -27 -27 -33 -23 -20 -17 -31 -37 -50 -43 200 MB DIV 61 53 39 12 11 15 25 29 14 11 -9 0 18 -4 -2 10 21 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 -1 1 0 0 1 7 17 11 9 LAND (KM) 1822 1863 1918 1987 2071 2223 2341 2054 1788 1539 1309 1085 835 598 407 281 252 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.4 14.0 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.2 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.1 124.2 125.4 126.6 127.9 130.5 133.3 135.9 138.3 140.6 142.7 144.8 147.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 12 12 11 10 11 11 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 5 8 15 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 27. 29. 29. 28. 27. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 15. 18. 18. 14. 9. 5. -0. -6. -9. -13. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 123.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982021 INVEST 07/23/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 6.0% 9.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 2.0% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982021 INVEST 07/23/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##