* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 11/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 33 35 36 34 31 30 30 28 25 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 33 35 36 34 31 30 30 28 25 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 30 31 30 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 7 7 4 5 8 14 16 18 16 22 25 31 31 31 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 0 0 0 1 10 2 3 3 6 4 8 8 8 4 SHEAR DIR 2 358 2 1 5 257 257 276 287 267 258 245 245 247 259 248 246 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.3 26.6 26.3 26.3 25.7 24.6 24.3 24.5 24.9 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 149 149 145 137 129 125 125 119 107 103 105 110 117 118 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 52 53 52 54 54 55 52 50 47 45 42 38 33 29 24 21 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 2 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -19 -29 -28 -38 -33 -32 -24 -31 -35 -33 -37 -72 -55 -40 -29 -20 200 MB DIV -12 14 25 17 10 38 15 -14 -67 -23 -12 -3 0 -14 -46 -60 -58 700-850 TADV 4 -2 -8 -3 2 2 0 5 6 8 10 12 3 -7 -14 -13 -5 LAND (KM) 682 713 776 841 913 933 985 1046 1061 1108 1169 1234 1274 1335 1450 1627 1842 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.6 16.4 17.1 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.1 110.1 111.1 112.2 114.4 116.4 118.1 119.5 120.7 121.9 123.3 124.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 11 9 9 7 7 7 6 4 4 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 17 13 13 15 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 28. 27. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 9. 6. 5. 5. 3. -0. -6. -11. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 108.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 11/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.23 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.23 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.8% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 19.2% 12.0% 6.7% 1.8% 10.9% 8.9% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 15.8% 10.3% 2.2% 0.6% 3.6% 3.0% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 11/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##