* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 11/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 34 36 39 37 33 30 29 28 25 22 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 34 36 39 37 33 30 29 28 25 22 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 31 30 28 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 8 6 5 11 18 20 20 19 19 21 24 27 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 4 5 3 6 5 3 5 5 7 6 SHEAR DIR 10 9 1 340 360 262 260 236 268 269 269 256 260 246 257 256 268 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.7 26.9 26.4 26.1 26.2 25.7 24.8 24.3 24.3 24.7 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 151 149 147 141 132 126 122 124 119 109 101 102 108 113 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 3 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 52 54 55 52 48 46 44 44 40 34 29 25 19 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 8 6 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -20 -23 -40 -38 -27 -31 -13 -20 -25 -35 -26 -54 -75 -57 -48 -31 200 MB DIV -13 -9 4 19 9 22 11 -4 -48 -39 -38 -9 -1 -4 -10 -49 -71 700-850 TADV 4 4 -1 -8 -3 3 -1 5 4 3 6 8 5 -1 -6 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 620 637 658 714 790 853 871 914 923 937 987 1073 1113 1131 1170 1229 1308 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.8 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.2 108.0 108.8 109.8 110.9 113.1 115.1 116.7 118.0 118.9 120.0 121.3 122.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 8 6 5 6 6 5 1 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 18 14 12 13 11 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 29. 28. 27. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 11. 14. 12. 8. 5. 4. 3. 0. -3. -9. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 107.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 11/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.18 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.0% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.5% 2.4% 1.0% 0.2% 2.1% 3.9% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 8.6% 5.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.3% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 11/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##