* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 11/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 19 21 24 25 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 19 21 24 25 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 17 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 5 6 3 12 16 26 28 27 23 16 17 23 24 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 0 3 2 0 5 2 10 7 6 3 6 5 5 SHEAR DIR 15 14 15 359 337 250 254 257 262 295 285 298 261 237 246 248 241 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.9 27.2 26.3 25.3 25.2 25.1 25.0 24.9 25.1 25.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 151 149 145 144 136 125 114 112 110 108 107 111 111 114 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 50 52 52 53 51 53 50 45 40 37 36 37 33 25 20 18 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -21 -20 -23 -43 -31 -12 -10 8 -9 -20 -23 -58 -70 -39 -31 -16 200 MB DIV 2 -17 -10 18 22 11 24 -9 -20 -42 -34 -42 -30 -18 -14 -33 -28 700-850 TADV 2 4 5 0 -7 5 3 0 5 6 4 4 1 -1 -6 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 602 625 639 676 734 824 837 861 845 816 801 788 777 759 771 795 800 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.9 16.8 18.0 19.0 20.1 20.8 21.3 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.6 108.5 109.4 110.4 112.6 114.7 116.4 117.6 118.4 118.8 119.0 119.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 9 7 6 3 2 1 1 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 19 15 12 10 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -7. -10. -10. -10. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 5. 4. 1. -4. -7. -9. -9. -11. -15. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 106.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 11/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 11/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##