* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 11/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 26 31 34 36 34 30 27 23 20 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 26 31 34 36 34 30 27 23 20 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 7 7 9 3 11 16 28 31 32 33 24 25 32 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 2 -1 -1 0 2 0 0 0 8 6 6 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 1 360 19 13 347 352 287 248 246 247 262 273 291 277 246 248 254 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.2 28.1 27.6 26.9 25.7 25.0 24.3 23.9 23.8 24.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 155 154 151 146 146 140 132 119 111 103 99 100 102 119 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 4 700-500 MB RH 48 49 49 51 51 50 52 52 47 44 39 39 42 39 31 24 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 -13 -18 -17 -40 -42 -21 -19 -5 -19 -25 -27 -44 -37 -6 -5 200 MB DIV -2 0 0 -13 -7 14 3 24 -2 -21 -34 -14 -53 -38 2 -8 -21 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 4 4 -10 6 -1 3 8 3 5 3 0 -9 -11 -7 LAND (KM) 577 562 576 593 606 660 779 785 792 790 740 694 644 566 422 285 224 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.7 18.8 20.0 20.9 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.5 105.4 106.0 106.8 107.6 109.4 111.4 113.4 115.2 116.4 117.3 117.6 117.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 7 9 9 10 10 11 9 8 6 5 4 5 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 20 19 21 15 10 11 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 31. 31. 30. 29. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 6. 9. 11. 9. 5. 2. -2. -5. -7. -13. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 105.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 11/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.59 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.15 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -3.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.2% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.2% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 11/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##