* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 11/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 34 41 41 45 43 40 34 29 22 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 34 41 41 45 43 40 34 29 22 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 33 33 32 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 7 7 5 5 10 11 18 28 34 38 40 48 60 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -1 -1 0 -3 2 2 3 1 1 1 2 -2 -6 -10 SHEAR DIR 31 26 31 43 55 40 312 285 280 264 241 242 246 252 249 245 249 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.2 27.9 26.8 25.5 24.3 23.5 21.9 22.1 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 151 152 153 149 146 145 142 130 117 105 98 83 87 106 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 1 0 2 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 47 48 49 50 48 46 44 39 37 34 34 35 31 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 7 9 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 12 16 14 12 -6 -16 -10 -12 5 -17 -13 -4 19 43 70 200 MB DIV -6 22 16 34 33 4 13 -6 5 -3 -14 -31 -20 -10 13 32 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 -1 2 0 3 0 3 -1 -5 -9 17 LAND (KM) 683 694 705 718 737 785 818 757 731 746 710 663 584 414 115 -7 -504 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.7 15.7 16.7 17.7 18.7 19.8 21.0 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.8 108.2 108.6 109.2 110.5 111.7 113.0 114.3 115.6 116.6 117.3 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 8 12 16 21 25 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 21 23 26 16 13 12 10 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 32. 32. 31. 29. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. -0. -4. -8. -12. -18. -27. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 3. 0. 3. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 16. 16. 20. 18. 15. 9. 4. -3. -12. -25. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 107.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 11/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.27 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.08 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.2% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 1.0% 0.8% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 9.0% 6.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 1.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 11/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##