* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 11/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 33 37 46 51 54 51 49 45 39 33 26 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 33 37 46 51 54 51 49 45 39 33 26 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 23 25 27 28 29 28 26 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 10 5 9 8 1 11 17 20 29 33 34 37 30 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 3 -2 4 4 5 3 6 3 15 5 SHEAR DIR 81 58 70 61 68 13 60 340 285 279 265 266 249 260 261 266 257 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.4 26.6 24.8 23.5 22.7 21.8 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 150 149 151 150 149 145 143 137 129 110 97 89 82 104 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 2 700-500 MB RH 44 46 47 48 49 51 49 48 47 44 41 41 36 34 34 39 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 9 8 7 9 7 8 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 0 13 27 38 34 29 23 12 4 7 -12 -20 -37 0 34 71 200 MB DIV 33 27 22 18 1 13 30 15 22 6 23 0 0 -12 -18 6 45 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 1 -2 5 -2 2 7 -1 -17 -13 LAND (KM) 704 706 702 704 694 730 747 777 698 619 576 529 444 381 215 -67 -251 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.8 17.0 18.2 19.4 20.8 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.4 108.8 109.1 109.2 109.8 110.4 111.3 112.3 113.2 114.1 115.1 115.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 3 2 4 4 7 7 7 8 9 7 8 10 17 24 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 22 21 19 17 15 14 13 10 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37. 35. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 26. 31. 34. 31. 29. 25. 19. 13. 6. -5. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.6 107.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 11/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.4% 36.8% 29.6% 9.5% 7.1% 2.6% 0.4% 12.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 12.9% 9.9% 3.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.1% 4.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 11/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##