* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 08/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 21 23 26 30 35 39 40 40 40 40 40 41 44 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 21 23 26 30 35 39 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 19 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 26 28 29 35 35 33 28 25 28 28 29 26 22 8 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 8 8 9 4 6 8 6 6 8 1 8 3 4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 68 71 69 71 73 80 76 69 73 69 60 41 54 54 55 34 16 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.5 28.7 29.7 29.8 29.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 157 156 157 157 154 155 157 156 148 151 161 162 158 149 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -52.5 -51.8 -52.7 -51.8 -52.4 -51.6 -52.1 -51.2 -51.5 -50.8 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 6 6 9 5 8 5 8 6 10 8 14 11 19 13 700-500 MB RH 85 83 84 83 81 81 80 80 78 76 80 77 76 70 65 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 2 15 18 16 3 4 12 33 22 38 53 46 40 31 68 200 MB DIV 74 88 109 95 77 111 87 115 104 93 74 68 50 23 14 -19 18 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -4 -3 -3 3 3 6 5 -6 -5 -7 0 3 8 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 49 47 40 20 11 33 98 147 148 95 -29 -166 -233 -205 -210 -286 -395 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.8 15.9 15.7 15.2 14.8 14.7 15.1 16.2 17.6 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.6 97.8 97.9 98.0 98.0 98.4 98.6 98.3 97.8 97.6 97.9 98.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 2 2 1 2 3 1 2 4 6 8 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 27 27 26 27 26 24 23 26 23 12 8 6 32 26 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. 41. 43. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -12. -19. -23. -27. -28. -29. -29. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 5. 10. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. 16. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 97.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 08/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 08/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##