* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 08/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 21 22 24 26 28 31 32 32 34 34 35 34 32 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 26 25 23 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 22 22 24 24 29 31 33 30 33 28 32 32 33 29 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 9 7 6 9 8 4 5 4 3 4 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 71 72 78 80 81 72 71 58 55 65 89 77 68 74 65 63 61 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.0 28.5 28.3 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 153 151 151 148 147 147 148 157 159 159 160 152 147 145 152 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 9 7 8 7 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 86 85 83 82 81 78 81 77 79 76 77 78 83 82 80 74 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 22 24 31 32 40 33 54 48 49 32 57 54 79 63 73 200 MB DIV 68 73 89 105 86 76 92 70 126 97 66 73 69 53 45 24 14 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -8 -4 -2 -3 -3 0 2 12 15 3 -4 -2 -2 0 -6 LAND (KM) -24 -56 -79 -97 -104 -122 -122 -116 -75 -2 68 96 56 -56 -129 -163 -136 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.0 17.6 17.1 17.0 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.7 97.3 97.8 98.1 98.4 98.9 99.6 100.2 100.8 101.4 101.8 102.1 102.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 2 2 4 5 4 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 20 18 16 15 4 14 15 23 27 27 25 17 12 11 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -14. -20. -25. -27. -28. -29. -30. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 96.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 08/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 08/25/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##