* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 08/24/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 42 47 49 49 48 49 50 51 50 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 30 31 32 31 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 15 14 14 19 21 29 37 37 33 31 24 24 33 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 5 7 9 6 8 8 3 8 6 5 6 4 1 3 4 SHEAR DIR 59 64 74 77 72 78 73 76 76 70 58 61 80 86 94 90 89 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 157 156 151 149 149 152 157 158 158 157 157 157 157 155 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.2 -51.8 -51.1 -51.8 -51.4 -52.1 -51.6 -52.3 -51.5 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 5 5 9 6 9 7 10 7 10 7 10 8 10 7 700-500 MB RH 80 80 84 85 86 82 79 78 79 79 78 77 80 81 83 83 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 23 27 24 2 9 7 29 43 50 49 47 82 76 82 85 200 MB DIV 99 102 99 99 96 118 104 103 69 54 40 66 75 64 94 124 89 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -6 -7 -7 -4 -4 0 1 4 5 3 4 2 1 2 -4 LAND (KM) 92 46 27 -7 -33 -97 -105 -99 -64 -9 56 89 89 86 50 44 22 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.2 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.1 96.5 97.0 97.4 98.1 98.6 99.2 100.0 101.0 101.9 102.7 103.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 5 5 4 3 2 1 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 25 25 23 17 15 15 18 26 25 26 26 25 24 25 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 24. 29. 32. 35. 38. 40. 42. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -10. -16. -21. -24. -24. -23. -25. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 24. 24. 23. 24. 25. 26. 25. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 95.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 08/24/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.25 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.68 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -5.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.7% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 18.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 6.8% 2.2% 1.2% 0.1% 6.4% 17.2% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.2% 11.0% 7.8% 0.4% 0.0% 8.3% 11.9% 1.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 08/24/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##