* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 08/24/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 45 48 48 47 46 46 45 43 40 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 29 29 28 26 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 29 29 29 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 11 11 12 15 21 26 28 28 29 28 28 22 21 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 5 6 3 7 2 8 6 2 3 4 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 63 63 71 71 70 84 88 81 76 66 54 49 56 63 57 60 76 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.6 29.1 27.1 25.1 26.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 157 154 152 150 147 146 146 148 151 161 156 135 114 124 102 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 8 6 7 7 9 8 10 10 11 11 11 8 6 2 700-500 MB RH 78 81 80 84 86 83 80 77 78 76 76 70 67 60 57 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 24 27 26 11 18 28 55 66 68 74 94 64 87 53 20 200 MB DIV 108 99 111 116 99 87 109 55 42 54 43 35 41 7 4 -3 -21 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -4 -5 -4 -4 -1 -2 -5 -7 -6 -10 -16 -9 -11 -9 -9 LAND (KM) 99 50 -7 -46 -78 -128 -139 -135 -110 -149 -146 25 165 42 101 165 238 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.4 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.4 20.5 21.3 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.5 95.7 96.1 96.7 97.3 98.3 99.2 100.0 101.1 102.5 103.9 105.5 107.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 5 6 9 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 22 20 19 12 12 12 10 12 15 28 33 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -6. -11. -15. -17. -19. -19. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 23. 22. 21. 21. 20. 18. 15. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 95.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 08/24/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.43 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.72 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.8% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 18.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 13.6% 5.8% 3.4% 0.6% 18.8% 19.8% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 12.7% 9.4% 1.2% 0.2% 12.5% 12.9% 1.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 18.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 08/24/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##