* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 08/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 56 61 60 58 55 55 57 57 56 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 56 61 60 58 55 55 57 41 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 32 31 28 25 23 22 23 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 21 22 18 12 17 25 32 39 30 28 22 16 18 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 0 6 5 5 5 3 9 9 11 6 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 77 64 67 75 79 79 87 80 81 76 55 38 33 54 72 90 102 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 161 161 160 160 161 163 161 159 158 158 155 150 146 144 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 4 6 5 7 6 8 6 7 7 8 6 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 72 76 79 81 82 87 82 82 80 83 80 80 79 81 79 81 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 9 11 13 12 10 8 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 25 22 19 14 16 -6 -5 -5 9 16 32 17 51 54 77 59 200 MB DIV 56 84 84 74 79 92 110 115 97 94 114 111 85 74 70 47 52 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -1 0 2 -3 -7 -10 -9 -4 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 214 190 169 141 109 64 36 57 82 117 127 99 55 11 -37 -80 -132 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.8 16.0 16.5 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.5 95.3 95.3 95.5 95.8 96.7 97.6 98.6 99.4 100.2 100.9 101.4 101.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 24 25 26 28 29 30 31 32 29 26 23 16 13 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 40. 42. 45. 46. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -20. -21. -20. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 8. 7. 3. -0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 31. 36. 35. 33. 30. 30. 32. 32. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 95.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 08/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.03 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.56 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.23 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 2.5% 15.1% 9.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 6.7% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 6.1% 10.8% 3.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 08/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##