* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 07/13/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 35 33 30 25 21 18 19 20 19 20 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 35 33 30 25 21 18 19 20 19 20 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 22 21 20 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 15 12 9 6 7 9 16 19 30 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -2 0 2 2 1 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 29 21 28 27 341 320 277 263 252 247 264 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.0 28.1 26.5 26.0 25.1 25.5 25.5 24.7 24.7 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 147 148 130 126 117 121 121 112 112 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 70 69 69 69 71 69 67 64 58 57 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -15 -7 -16 -17 -10 -18 -24 -13 -27 -16 -16 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 2 -2 -3 -3 4 0 -2 1 9 -14 7 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 1 2 10 5 14 11 7 7 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 498 634 691 767 877 1105 1313 1620 1897 2194 1981 1638 1319 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 16 17 16 15 16 18 17 17 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 10 12 10 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. 26. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -10. -10. -10. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 8. 5. -0. -4. -7. -6. -5. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.9 108.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 07/13/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.31 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.19 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.2% 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 4.0% 4.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 07/13/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##