* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 07/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 40 44 45 44 40 36 33 30 32 34 34 36 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 40 44 45 44 40 36 33 30 32 34 34 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 34 34 33 31 29 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 17 15 14 9 8 7 12 16 25 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -3 0 4 -2 3 -2 -5 -3 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 38 35 27 23 20 13 340 328 269 258 249 252 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.8 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.0 24.5 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 154 156 155 151 145 134 131 130 125 109 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 72 72 75 73 71 66 64 59 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -5 -12 -10 -13 -4 -3 -10 -6 -4 -17 -19 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 24 5 6 5 5 4 10 12 6 4 5 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 3 1 6 3 5 9 6 5 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 448 552 686 792 854 1100 1372 1654 1946 2218 2078 1765 1538 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 16 16 16 17 17 18 18 17 15 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 10 12 17 22 16 10 5 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 14. 15. 14. 10. 6. 3. 0. 2. 4. 4. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 107.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 07/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.17 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.26 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 18.3% 15.0% 10.3% 0.0% 15.1% 16.3% 10.9% Logistic: 0.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 2.6% 8.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.9% 5.2% 3.5% 0.1% 5.4% 6.3% 6.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 07/13/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##