* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 07/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 38 41 45 47 47 44 43 41 38 39 41 42 44 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 36 38 41 45 47 47 44 43 41 38 39 41 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 35 33 32 30 28 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 20 17 14 11 9 9 15 18 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 -2 3 0 -1 -2 -2 -7 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 42 38 29 28 19 20 351 320 302 278 275 262 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 27.9 27.9 28.6 28.8 28.4 27.5 27.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.2 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 145 145 153 155 151 142 143 131 130 130 128 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 72 72 72 74 68 69 66 61 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 9 -3 -16 -8 -7 -8 -15 -11 -9 -23 -17 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 48 17 10 6 4 16 0 3 21 0 -19 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 2 4 1 7 5 8 10 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 324 406 491 626 752 880 1159 1423 1713 1975 2242 2069 1732 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 16 17 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 9 8 11 14 14 7 8 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 15. 17. 17. 14. 13. 11. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 104.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 07/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.04 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.29 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.6% 12.5% 8.7% 0.0% 12.8% 15.0% 10.7% Logistic: 0.8% 3.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 1.3% 7.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 6.5% 4.6% 3.1% 0.1% 4.6% 5.5% 6.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 07/12/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##