* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982019 10/15/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 31 33 34 41 47 53 56 60 63 65 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 31 33 34 35 35 31 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 30 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 15 13 13 16 16 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 4 3 1 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 82 102 98 76 65 79 56 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.8 29.3 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 162 162 160 164 158 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 6 5 7 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 84 84 82 82 86 80 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 13 9 10 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 83 86 71 70 81 62 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 108 137 146 131 117 143 112 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 -3 -6 -5 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 177 188 226 165 95 36 -3 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 13 17 21 22 25 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 11. 17. 23. 26. 30. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 92.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982019 INVEST 10/15/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.27 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.85 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 22.2% 20.1% 15.1% 0.0% 19.8% 21.6% 42.8% Logistic: 0.2% 3.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 3.7% 26.0% 12.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% Consensus: 2.6% 8.7% 7.1% 5.2% 0.0% 7.9% 15.9% 21.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982019 INVEST 10/15/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##