* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982019 10/15/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 33 33 35 40 46 51 54 58 61 64 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 33 33 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 14 10 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 5 4 4 -2 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 87 90 99 82 79 83 97 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.1 29.2 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 161 163 161 156 158 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 6 7 6 8 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 85 83 82 81 82 85 78 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 13 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 74 72 80 67 67 65 55 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 125 117 120 130 110 122 128 86 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -3 0 -1 -7 -4 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 190 181 187 224 186 44 -38 -71 -103 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 13 12 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 12 16 20 23 17 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 5. 10. 16. 21. 24. 28. 31. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 91.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982019 INVEST 10/15/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.39 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.81 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 22.1% 20.6% 15.6% 0.0% 19.8% 22.7% 42.9% Logistic: 0.4% 5.7% 2.0% 1.0% 0.1% 6.9% 26.7% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 6.1% Consensus: 2.6% 9.7% 7.7% 5.6% 0.1% 8.9% 16.5% 21.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982019 INVEST 10/15/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##