* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982019 08/31/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 37 46 56 64 72 74 79 78 74 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 37 46 56 64 72 74 79 78 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 45 48 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 3 6 5 7 6 5 5 6 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 5 1 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 196 169 228 265 285 317 314 318 273 300 290 283 222 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 27.9 28.0 27.7 26.6 25.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 159 160 159 158 155 143 144 140 129 116 109 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 73 71 68 70 70 70 66 63 60 53 52 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 13 15 17 20 22 25 26 30 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 7 2 -10 -9 -3 8 12 21 31 28 55 49 36 200 MB DIV 120 127 95 52 27 31 9 25 42 25 25 1 -17 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 1 -7 -4 -5 -3 -2 -2 0 5 LAND (KM) 775 776 766 776 760 790 773 749 784 825 912 1013 1100 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.7 15.1 16.5 17.8 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.5 107.2 108.1 109.0 110.9 112.9 114.7 116.3 117.8 119.5 121.3 123.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 11 11 12 11 10 8 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 33 33 26 24 22 10 10 8 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 18. 19. 25. 22. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 12. 21. 31. 39. 47. 49. 54. 53. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 105.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982019 INVEST 08/31/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.82 7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.28 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.7% 26.9% 0.0% 0.0% 23.8% 23.3% 0.0% Logistic: 14.2% 50.7% 39.3% 23.3% 3.8% 40.1% 41.0% 26.7% Bayesian: 4.2% 31.8% 19.4% 6.8% 0.3% 9.9% 10.2% 0.7% Consensus: 6.1% 37.4% 28.5% 10.0% 1.4% 24.6% 24.8% 9.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 24.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982019 INVEST 08/31/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##