* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982019 08/31/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 42 48 57 62 68 67 69 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 42 48 57 62 68 67 69 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 34 36 39 42 43 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 2 6 3 9 10 9 10 12 8 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 3 2 -2 -3 -2 1 -1 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 274 274 23 116 143 259 331 331 327 304 300 279 247 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.2 28.5 28.3 27.8 26.2 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 152 152 154 157 156 158 150 147 142 126 106 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 71 69 69 73 69 66 62 56 53 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 14 16 19 18 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -4 -2 -13 -25 -20 -8 -7 7 8 17 32 19 200 MB DIV 75 90 106 105 71 4 36 -1 1 10 11 -5 -17 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 0 1 0 -7 -3 -4 -3 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 889 904 896 879 856 813 777 790 693 676 677 709 751 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.6 11.0 11.5 12.8 14.3 16.0 17.6 19.0 20.1 21.3 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.5 106.1 106.6 107.1 108.4 110.0 111.8 113.5 115.0 116.5 118.1 119.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 8 10 11 12 10 10 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 27 25 27 35 23 26 16 12 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 8. 10. 15. 14. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 17. 23. 32. 37. 43. 42. 44. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 104.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982019 INVEST 08/31/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982019 INVEST 08/31/19 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING