* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972021 09/12/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 45 51 56 59 60 62 62 62 61 63 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 10 9 6 3 9 7 17 14 26 27 26 27 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -7 -3 -3 2 0 1 -2 1 2 3 -4 2 5 4 1 SHEAR DIR 95 104 117 125 133 159 71 176 197 222 236 239 280 302 331 330 352 SST (C) 29.2 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.8 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 151 149 148 146 152 155 152 148 148 152 157 159 160 159 158 157 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 5 9 7 12 8 14 9 14 10 14 11 14 10 700-500 MB RH 88 86 85 83 80 72 69 62 58 56 52 55 53 56 53 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 71 72 70 69 72 84 68 49 34 11 -15 -32 -36 -25 -5 -2 200 MB DIV 126 118 122 118 108 89 28 11 0 17 -5 3 -6 2 -1 4 -13 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 -4 -3 2 0 0 -1 -1 -2 2 0 -1 -8 -7 -14 LAND (KM) -2 -86 -140 -193 -213 -204 -171 -185 -225 -244 -261 -289 -275 -223 -195 -240 -330 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.5 20.1 21.5 22.6 23.3 24.2 25.0 25.8 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.3 96.9 97.5 98.0 98.9 99.4 99.7 100.0 100.2 100.3 100.3 100.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 13 12 11 12 4 19 23 18 15 10 5 5 5 5 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 37. 40. 42. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 20. 26. 31. 34. 35. 37. 37. 37. 36. 38. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 95.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 09/12/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.79 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.44 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.3% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 20.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 23.9% 11.4% 8.2% 5.7% 34.2% 56.0% 15.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 1.4% Consensus: 0.7% 16.3% 10.5% 2.8% 1.9% 17.7% 25.5% 5.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 09/12/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##