* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972021 09/12/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 49 54 59 63 65 65 64 63 62 60 57 57 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 12 10 8 5 3 9 14 24 27 36 34 36 32 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -6 -4 1 -1 0 -4 2 0 3 0 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 96 106 129 138 151 156 234 166 240 242 253 265 274 300 327 351 345 SST (C) 29.6 29.1 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.2 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.7 29.3 29.8 30.3 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 155 150 151 151 146 157 153 148 149 156 162 167 169 169 168 167 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 7 7 5 8 8 10 10 12 11 12 11 12 10 13 11 700-500 MB RH 86 87 84 83 82 76 71 66 59 54 52 52 54 55 53 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 78 78 78 74 64 66 77 88 49 32 0 2 3 -8 10 0 200 MB DIV 100 108 110 132 130 119 56 13 6 8 3 0 14 22 35 -10 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 1 -1 -2 0 -1 6 7 9 3 0 -11 LAND (KM) 65 -25 -107 -168 -148 -148 -117 -145 -184 -223 -284 -304 -269 -223 -145 -62 -37 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.2 19.8 21.4 22.7 23.6 24.4 25.4 26.7 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.5 96.0 96.5 97.1 98.1 98.8 99.3 99.6 100.0 100.4 100.5 100.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 4 5 6 7 6 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 17 13 17 15 8 20 23 17 15 7 5 5 6 7 56 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 37. 40. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. -1. -4. -8. -13. -18. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 19. 24. 29. 33. 35. 35. 34. 33. 32. 30. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 95.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 09/12/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.77 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.46 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 24.2% 20.7% 19.8% 0.0% 20.3% 27.8% 30.6% Logistic: 1.4% 10.3% 4.7% 2.9% 1.6% 21.2% 70.7% 16.2% Bayesian: 1.1% 8.8% 7.9% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 4.2% Consensus: 4.1% 14.4% 11.1% 8.4% 0.7% 13.9% 32.8% 17.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 09/12/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##