* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972021 09/12/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 26 28 34 39 46 53 58 60 62 64 63 62 59 60 V (KT) LAND 20 22 21 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 13 12 10 7 1 5 6 17 20 28 32 27 29 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -5 -4 -5 -3 0 0 4 -2 2 1 3 0 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 80 98 106 129 126 129 168 351 193 244 241 260 260 290 305 339 353 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.9 29.4 28.6 28.5 29.0 29.6 30.3 30.5 30.1 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 156 150 150 149 153 158 148 147 152 159 166 169 165 162 163 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 7 5 9 7 12 8 13 9 13 9 12 8 12 700-500 MB RH 86 87 86 84 82 78 71 69 63 59 56 56 57 55 56 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 76 77 72 70 65 66 72 85 69 48 5 5 -2 -2 -24 -8 200 MB DIV 85 102 119 105 106 116 99 40 8 -7 0 -16 13 5 15 -17 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 3 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 8 3 1 LAND (KM) 125 64 -8 -85 -166 -138 -117 -98 -133 -153 -161 -185 -105 -28 7 60 108 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 18.7 20.5 22.1 23.3 24.1 24.9 25.8 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.9 95.3 95.7 96.2 97.3 98.2 98.8 99.1 99.3 99.3 99.2 98.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 10 9 8 5 4 4 5 6 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 18 14 14 15 10 26 18 16 11 5 5 57 45 42 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 41. 45. 48. 51. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 14. 19. 26. 33. 38. 40. 42. 44. 43. 42. 39. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.9 94.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 09/12/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 10.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 23.1% 10.1% 6.8% 5.5% 37.0% 58.4% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 1.9% Consensus: 0.7% 7.9% 3.5% 2.3% 1.9% 12.4% 19.5% 5.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 09/12/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##