* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972021 09/11/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 28 30 33 38 44 48 51 54 58 61 64 67 72 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 28 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 25 25 25 20 14 7 12 11 9 6 9 10 5 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 0 1 4 3 0 -2 1 1 1 0 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 60 64 68 71 72 81 86 68 67 120 160 177 216 232 246 219 211 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.3 28.5 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 153 155 156 159 158 148 144 145 145 146 144 143 142 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 5 4 7 7 9 9 11 11 13 11 13 11 12 700-500 MB RH 82 83 85 84 84 86 80 80 75 70 62 60 56 60 59 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 9 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 46 55 67 72 79 55 57 44 64 60 72 43 44 25 24 24 200 MB DIV 94 91 96 114 143 133 108 64 36 26 10 12 0 6 11 5 5 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -4 -7 -10 -5 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -1 -2 1 LAND (KM) 487 458 418 356 292 151 -19 -164 -261 -328 -348 -290 -270 -275 -290 -275 -208 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.8 13.4 14.9 16.8 18.4 19.8 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.7 97.9 98.1 98.3 98.4 98.9 99.4 99.8 100.4 101.0 101.9 102.7 103.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 9 10 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 14 17 18 20 18 12 9 12 11 13 11 11 11 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 37. 40. 42. 43. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 38. 41. 44. 47. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 97.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 09/11/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 4.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 10.7% 7.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.6% 2.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 09/11/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##