* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972021 07/17/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 45 51 59 68 73 72 67 62 59 55 51 47 44 41 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 45 51 59 68 73 72 67 62 59 55 51 47 44 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 47 51 52 49 46 43 41 41 39 37 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 4 7 1 2 5 6 7 7 10 5 11 9 2 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -1 1 4 7 3 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 6 2 SHEAR DIR 5 354 324 53 46 185 307 321 9 2 21 9 2 340 8 48 269 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.9 26.4 26.0 25.1 25.0 25.2 24.8 25.3 24.6 25.0 24.6 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 152 146 142 144 129 125 115 113 115 111 116 109 113 111 112 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 76 76 73 71 70 68 66 64 61 57 52 49 45 42 40 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 16 18 20 24 25 24 23 22 22 20 20 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 13 7 4 -5 -9 0 14 19 50 65 63 77 84 76 67 53 44 200 MB DIV 60 57 32 34 60 70 36 2 9 -22 -20 -15 -30 -30 -18 -23 -31 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -10 -14 -6 -15 -7 -11 -5 -8 -4 -1 1 4 9 14 LAND (KM) 526 595 684 688 701 829 995 1174 1414 1606 1803 1994 2203 2126 1946 1669 1277 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 11 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 11 11 9 11 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 11 8 6 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. 22. 21. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 18. 17. 15. 13. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 21. 29. 38. 43. 42. 37. 32. 29. 25. 21. 17. 14. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 108.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 07/17/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 22.7% 19.8% 18.7% 0.0% 19.7% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 26.8% 14.4% 8.3% 2.5% 5.6% 0.7% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 17.4% 11.6% 9.0% 0.9% 8.5% 6.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 17.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 6.0% 11.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 07/17/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##