* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972021 07/17/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 47 53 64 71 74 74 68 63 57 53 50 46 42 37 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 47 53 64 71 74 74 68 63 57 53 50 46 42 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 48 52 54 52 48 43 40 38 37 35 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 9 6 4 5 7 9 9 9 4 8 4 7 10 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 2 7 4 0 -1 1 -1 3 1 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 345 337 326 326 348 298 283 299 332 340 2 342 354 337 344 307 285 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.5 27.3 27.5 26.1 25.4 25.0 24.2 24.4 24.7 24.5 23.3 23.7 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 155 155 150 137 139 125 118 113 105 107 111 108 95 100 96 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 5 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 79 76 76 73 72 72 69 66 64 62 58 57 50 48 42 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 15 15 18 21 24 26 25 24 22 21 20 19 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 23 12 10 7 0 -2 1 0 19 28 44 67 76 75 60 46 20 200 MB DIV 99 77 54 49 47 78 84 45 30 7 -27 1 2 -10 -3 0 -24 700-850 TADV 7 1 0 -2 -7 -8 -11 -21 -7 -7 0 0 2 1 6 1 7 LAND (KM) 375 421 493 569 620 658 775 898 1083 1265 1431 1612 1838 2036 2146 1905 1643 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 14 12 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 12 12 11 10 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 15 12 12 9 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 23. 23. 22. 21. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 18. 16. 13. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 23. 34. 41. 44. 44. 38. 33. 27. 23. 20. 16. 12. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 105.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 07/17/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 28.3% 21.4% 20.1% 0.0% 20.2% 26.8% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 32.8% 16.5% 10.2% 4.3% 22.8% 12.8% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 7.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 22.8% 13.6% 10.5% 1.5% 14.5% 13.2% 1.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 14.0% 13.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 07/17/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##