* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972021 07/16/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 49 58 70 77 78 76 70 64 59 52 47 40 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 49 58 70 77 78 76 70 64 59 52 47 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 46 49 50 47 42 38 35 31 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 9 5 6 4 5 8 5 9 11 6 7 7 9 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -2 -3 -6 -1 -1 1 0 0 1 -1 -1 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 34 24 34 353 299 21 34 60 352 350 339 338 338 346 315 306 280 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.0 27.8 26.9 25.9 24.8 24.1 24.4 24.6 24.6 23.6 23.4 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 159 155 154 145 143 133 123 112 105 107 110 110 100 97 96 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.4 -52.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 82 80 78 78 75 74 74 74 68 65 62 55 49 43 36 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 11 11 15 16 20 23 25 27 25 23 22 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 24 21 30 15 9 -2 -2 14 20 43 63 87 94 96 90 78 67 200 MB DIV 104 80 74 60 70 77 91 91 61 47 0 6 1 -9 -25 -8 -2 700-850 TADV 6 7 1 -2 0 -3 -3 -6 -12 -13 -12 -4 -5 -3 -1 3 2 LAND (KM) 474 453 471 513 597 727 810 937 1061 1246 1438 1628 1830 2045 2090 1826 1583 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 17 16 15 12 11 12 13 13 12 11 12 12 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 17 14 12 8 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 17. 21. 22. 18. 15. 12. 9. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 33. 45. 52. 53. 51. 45. 39. 34. 27. 22. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 103.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 07/16/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.62 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.7% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 20.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 33.1% 19.0% 10.2% 3.1% 32.4% 48.0% 10.6% Bayesian: 3.1% 12.7% 4.9% 1.4% 0.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.7% 22.8% 14.5% 3.8% 1.1% 18.0% 23.3% 3.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 07/16/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##