* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972021 07/16/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 25 28 32 35 36 31 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 25 28 32 35 36 31 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 19 19 19 33 35 27 22 26 25 27 31 21 14 10 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 4 4 1 -2 5 10 2 1 8 3 0 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 350 354 2 7 357 339 339 321 292 288 279 256 253 241 216 221 248 SST (C) 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 30.1 29.7 28.1 24.4 22.3 21.7 21.1 22.0 23.0 23.3 24.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 154 156 156 157 168 164 148 110 89 82 75 84 95 97 109 108 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -52.7 -52.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 6 7 6 10 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 76 77 76 74 72 70 63 61 59 53 51 47 46 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 3 7 12 19 2 16 20 25 17 16 35 50 77 108 103 78 200 MB DIV 146 144 110 117 127 55 57 37 35 16 17 4 -8 -18 1 -10 0 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -4 -3 -2 7 -11 -15 -30 -33 -28 -8 -7 -9 -6 -4 0 LAND (KM) 591 549 500 447 390 244 161 324 268 495 776 1115 1475 1867 2152 1986 1868 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.2 12.1 13.1 14.1 16.3 18.4 20.2 21.9 22.9 23.5 23.4 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.0 99.2 100.4 101.5 102.5 104.3 106.1 108.8 112.4 116.7 121.1 125.0 128.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 14 14 14 14 17 20 21 19 17 17 17 14 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 17 16 17 20 21 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 12. 21. 27. 30. 32. 31. 29. 27. 25. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. -14. -19. -23. -25. -27. -27. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. 11. 6. 2. -4. -10. -16. -22. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.6 98.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 07/16/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 26.6% 12.4% 7.2% 1.5% 7.7% 6.3% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 9.4% 4.4% 2.5% 0.5% 2.6% 2.1% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 26.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 07/16/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##