* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 10/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 46 48 55 53 55 58 59 61 62 61 61 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 46 48 55 53 55 58 59 61 62 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 33 34 34 34 33 33 35 37 39 41 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 6 10 11 4 5 5 5 3 5 3 3 2 9 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -3 1 1 -2 -4 -1 -4 1 -1 5 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 86 84 4 336 356 350 248 297 310 303 122 324 359 10 151 172 178 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 145 144 143 143 144 146 148 147 149 149 149 153 154 154 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 70 68 67 67 63 62 59 58 59 58 62 64 63 62 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 10 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -39 -47 -47 -41 -47 -32 -15 -3 5 10 6 18 23 25 4 19 200 MB DIV 34 34 43 60 55 48 60 43 2 -25 -7 -3 37 49 53 25 0 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -7 -7 -4 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 -3 -1 2 1 LAND (KM) 796 799 804 803 798 779 735 710 656 606 596 622 632 642 650 586 549 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.4 13.1 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.5 14.5 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.5 106.3 107.0 107.6 108.3 108.4 108.3 108.0 107.6 107.4 107.9 108.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 6 4 1 2 2 2 1 4 6 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 22 21 20 17 17 16 16 17 17 17 16 14 16 19 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 18. 25. 23. 25. 28. 29. 31. 32. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.1 104.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 10/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.40 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 23.8% 21.5% 14.8% 0.0% 20.0% 20.9% 17.9% Logistic: 1.1% 7.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% 2.9% 10.6% 18.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 4.0% 10.5% 8.0% 5.3% 0.1% 7.6% 10.5% 12.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 10/05/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##