* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 10/04/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 33 35 37 40 43 43 41 43 45 47 51 54 56 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 33 33 35 37 40 43 43 41 43 45 47 51 54 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 28 27 26 24 24 24 24 25 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 6 8 5 7 9 12 14 10 6 10 2 2 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 2 0 -2 -6 -1 -5 -1 0 4 0 3 SHEAR DIR 136 109 115 158 235 269 272 240 261 262 291 273 295 16 84 165 185 SST (C) 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 152 154 154 151 145 145 146 147 150 151 152 152 152 150 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 69 68 65 62 58 56 56 55 54 56 60 59 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -22 -30 -42 -41 -38 -45 -31 -23 -14 -5 0 6 16 21 41 33 200 MB DIV 8 12 17 26 28 23 23 39 19 8 -12 0 -2 20 31 29 0 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -5 -6 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0 5 LAND (KM) 734 706 687 678 682 676 664 635 616 571 527 518 531 568 620 688 741 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.4 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.3 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.1 104.7 105.3 106.0 107.1 107.6 107.6 107.6 107.5 107.4 107.4 107.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 5 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 5 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 28 36 30 22 16 16 16 17 17 18 19 18 16 14 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 13. 11. 13. 15. 17. 21. 24. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.1 103.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 10/04/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.26 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 20.5% 20.1% 14.0% 0.0% 18.6% 18.3% 11.9% Logistic: 1.0% 7.3% 2.6% 1.2% 0.3% 1.7% 1.2% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 9.7% 7.6% 5.1% 0.1% 6.8% 6.5% 5.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 10/04/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##