* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 10/04/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 39 43 46 49 50 48 49 51 54 57 59 61 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 39 43 46 49 50 48 49 51 54 57 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 32 30 29 28 27 27 28 29 31 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 9 6 6 7 7 9 10 9 4 3 3 10 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -3 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -6 -1 -4 -2 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 136 136 89 108 150 273 295 280 255 258 235 256 221 145 164 123 145 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 149 151 153 149 144 143 144 147 149 150 151 153 154 155 152 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 69 70 68 65 61 59 55 56 56 59 59 62 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -25 -25 -32 -46 -46 -37 -23 -14 1 1 10 17 27 36 41 47 200 MB DIV 0 -4 0 13 16 30 43 50 40 36 7 -5 0 18 23 37 39 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -4 -3 -5 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 760 740 726 723 715 707 694 686 661 620 565 532 516 517 511 530 586 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.3 103.9 104.5 105.2 106.3 107.1 107.4 107.3 107.2 106.9 106.8 106.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 16 23 32 32 21 17 16 16 16 18 19 19 19 18 17 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 18. 19. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 102.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 10/04/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.67 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.20 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 21.4% 19.4% 13.4% 0.0% 18.8% 18.9% 12.4% Logistic: 2.2% 18.1% 6.0% 3.1% 1.0% 5.3% 6.2% 15.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 14.1% 8.5% 5.5% 0.3% 8.1% 8.5% 9.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 10/04/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##