* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 08/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 42 51 60 75 90 99 102 101 100 93 87 79 71 65 59 V (KT) LAND 30 35 42 51 60 75 90 99 102 101 100 93 87 79 71 65 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 42 47 61 78 96 105 108 101 88 74 60 50 42 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 5 6 6 1 8 7 9 10 7 6 10 14 12 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -2 0 1 -1 -4 -6 -3 0 1 4 9 9 5 3 SHEAR DIR 80 69 31 108 96 172 142 124 130 151 167 122 164 188 185 185 196 SST (C) 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.4 29.8 29.0 28.7 27.3 26.0 24.9 24.5 24.1 22.5 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 163 163 164 166 171 164 155 151 137 124 112 107 103 87 79 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -53.1 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -52.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.5 -50.7 -50.1 -50.3 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 5 6 5 8 8 8 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 82 80 79 80 81 80 81 80 77 68 63 53 53 51 52 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 14 17 18 20 25 27 28 28 30 29 28 25 22 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 51 37 38 35 40 39 47 45 68 68 78 63 47 62 55 57 31 200 MB DIV 104 109 113 105 139 122 154 109 112 77 52 25 27 6 -2 4 -9 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 2 0 -5 -5 -6 0 2 -2 -14 3 5 0 -4 1 LAND (KM) 446 487 500 470 456 481 466 453 479 425 313 338 405 481 498 579 710 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 17 16 15 15 12 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 17 19 28 43 35 28 18 14 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 62.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. 32. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 6. 7. 14. 20. 24. 25. 27. 24. 20. 16. 11. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 10. 3. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 21. 30. 45. 60. 69. 72. 71. 70. 64. 57. 49. 41. 35. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.4 93.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 08/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.76 7.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -7.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 66% is 14.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 42.4% 31.2% 21.7% 0.0% 44.3% 69.0% 65.9% Logistic: 4.6% 41.7% 26.0% 15.6% 4.3% 59.5% 85.8% 78.4% Bayesian: 1.1% 12.2% 10.3% 2.7% 0.3% 1.3% 3.0% 46.5% Consensus: 6.9% 32.1% 22.5% 13.3% 1.5% 35.1% 52.6% 63.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 08/16/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##